Sure, Gillard is a hopeless prime minister. Everything she does seems to go pear shape. And quickly.
It may not be her fault, not in the sense that she is a bad leader, a horrible person, a twit.
Though she does have some form when it comes to plain, straight out stupidity.
Gillard came up with the 2004 election clanger - Medicare Gold - a true shocker.
She devised the ALP's infamous immigration policy as Opposition spokesperson - it's ironic that she is wearing the blowback from this crazy tougher but kinder approach.
No, Gillard's real problem is desperation.
A smart (i.e.in the Machiavelllian, Mario Puzo sense) politician would have insisted on Kevin leading the party to the 2010 election.
She should have told the conspirators that it was too late for a change so close to the election.
If Kevin won (almost certainly with a reduced majority) the party could have told him to move on sometime in 2011. Presumably, the colleagues would still have despised him just as much.
If Kevin lost, well she would have been Opposition leader and had to do what every great PM has done and that is win from Opposition (except Curtin who became PM after a vote of no-confidence).
I think coming from Opposition would have given her much greater authority with the electorate - it always seems to.
But she couldn't wait.
And then when the election result was inconclusive, she couldn't say no either.
The Greens got a carbon tax, Wilkie got pokie reform, Oakeshott got a tax forum.
And the ALP got back into the Lodge with enough saddle bag lead to defeat Black Caviar.
Where's Labor's issue, what's happening with Education. Crean seems to have put that particular revolution to sleep - or was Gillard's performance in that portfolio so bad that the ALP has decided that the less said in that area the better.
Desperation for office is a poor substitute for cold, hard political calculation.
Kevin is probably desperate too. Desperate for a second chance to prove the detractors wrong.
But, if Kevin comes back, he'll inherit Julia's leaden deals. Pretty soon he'll be looking as dopey as she does at the moment.
If the ALP is going to win in 2013 (yes I realise how stupid that sounds) it will have to come up with an issue that can turn the election into a referendum.
Something that makes the mob want to vote ALP. Something about which Abbott can't say 'me too'. Something that can unite the ALP's blue collar and green-leaning constituencies.
A Labor version of Howard's "who do you trust on interest rates".
They hope that Abbott himself could be that issue, but the electorate seems to be getting used to the idea of Abbott PM.
In any event, the Abbott bogey isn't good enough to turn this doomed ship around.
If Kevin's got that issue in his knapsack, then he might succeed.
God knows what it would be.
If he hasn't got the silver bullet issue, it will be a sad reprise to his roman candle like political career.