A new day dawns in Canberra

I was not a big fan of Kevin Rudd. He had many flaws, many of which (ill-treatment of staff) I find abhorrent. He made many stupid mistakes, like relying on inexperienced staff and failing to build strong support bases in the ALP. His media strategy was often ludicrous. He didn't delegate and he excluded the Cabinet and the caucus too often. Some of these failings were the flipside of his political strengths - bright, driven with policy ambition and above the murky world of internal ALP politics .

But he did do many great things. He got the ALP elected for a start. He won the leadership because the caucus believed Howard would win again. If Labor had lost in 2007, WorkChoices would be established law and the union movement would be stuffed. Paradoxically, his image of being above unions and factions was just the persona the labour movement needed to turn the YR@W campaign into a political winner. And he said sorry to the stolen generations - as great a day as Canberra is ever likely to see.

And he deserved to go to the next election as PM. When I was growing up, so long ago now, the ALP was the party of ideas and soul. It lost more than it won - but its failings were endearing. The ALP had soul. It loved its leaders. It was motivated by ideas, as well as the pursuit of power. It was ever-likely to tear itself apart about some principle or policy. It was infuriating, but it was also something that deserved the lifelong loyalty of many Australians through thick and thin. A leader under fire from mining billionaires and the Murdoch media would have become a Labor legend not a pariah. I know those days are gone, but I think we have lost a lot with their passing. 

Rudd was also scapegoated. The narrative is that it is all about Rudd, without him the story goes the ALP will romp in. I'm not convinced. Rudd's popularity collapse was prompted by policy changes notably the ETS background and the mining tax which were Gillard's and Swan's as much as they were Rudd's. In addition, the ALP's TPP vote improved in the last of the 4 Newspolls. Some secret polls conducted by the NSW ALP and / or the AWU apparently show a disaster not evident in the published polls.

So the ALP panicked. The official reason was that the government had lost its way. That's what happens when you've got no soul. It hopes the assassination of Kevin Rudd will boost its chances. I doubt it. They will have to gut the mining tax and toughen the asylum seekers policy. If that doesn't work - then what? The ALP has handed Tony Abbott a huge win. Opposition leaders don't often provoke Governments to dump incumbent PMs, because its an obvious sign of weakness and panic. The ALP has mired itself again in factionalism, faceless men and external union influence. Very big negatives with swinging voters.

Who is Julia Gillard? No doubt we will be deluged with the usual media honeymoon frenzy. But I'm so far been unable to get a fix on who she is and what she believes in. Where does she differ from Rudd. More consultative? Yawn. She is a woman. Great, but won't win anymore votes than it loses. She is a good debater. Is she a good campaigner? Don't know.Does she have much to say? Not so far. I suspect the appeal of Gillard will fizzle. After all, we know a lot more about who Abbott is then we do about Gillard.

And will she be there for a full-term? After the Rudd assassination, you might vote for Gillard but that's no guarantee that the ALP factions won't assassinate her if she hits a bit of whitewater.

I think Rudd would have won this year's election. Especially if the shadowy figures had got behind the government and promoted its cause rather than leaking leadership stories to News Ltd for weeks and months. Rudd was in a better position than most prime ministers six months out from an election. 

I suspect that Abbott will now win. Gillard doesn't have long enough to establish a real connection with voters and I think that the criticisms of the Government are a product issue not just Rudd's style. If they get rid of those product issues there won't be much reason left for swinging Liberals and blue collar workers (Howard battlers) not to go back to the coalition after a brief flirtation with Rudd Labor. 

Comments

[patrickg]

Terrific post, Trevor.

[Kerryn Goldsworthy]

Trevor, what do you mean by 'More consultative? Yawn.' Do you mean you don't think she is really, or that it isn't an important attribute?

[Trevor Cook]

Kerryn - I think being consultative is important but it won't win votes. I think the concern about Rudd's management style is an internal thing. The big 'problem' policy positions were not done by Rudd alone. The gang of four were all deeply involved in the ETS, mining tax and asylum seeker positions. In addition, the big Rudd Govt problems have been about administration, first insulation and then the BER. The BER was administered by Gillard's department. Tales of over-spending run constantly on talkback and throughout the media. Gillard has been singularly unsuccessful in addressing these public negatives. I don't see any of this being overcome by more consultation. Any negotiated outcome with the mining industry will involve a large backdown by Gillard. Any addressing of community anxieties about boatpeople will see a move to the right (lurch or drift) and the ETS? No-one knows what she is going to do on that.

[Kerryn Goldsworthy]

Thanks Trevor, that's very clear. So 'Yawn' as in 'Sure sure but it won't make any difference.'

I'm sure you're right, except that clearly Rudd's non-consultative management style was a very big part of what happened to him. But I take your point about the big problems.

[Nicole Doughty]

Agree on all of the above, especially 'After the Rudd assassination, you might vote for Gillard but that's no guarantee that the ALP factions won't assassinate her if she hits a bit of whitewater.' The ALP have shown their true colours in proving that they care more about polls and popularity than policy. I actually spluttered with laughter when I heard Julia on the radio this morning, saying she took over because she thought it was the best thing for the government. More like the best thing for the ALP's re-election chances (in their minds, anyway). Pretty disgraceful way to treat a PM.