Gillard gets poll bounce after Rinehart deal

Interpreting opinion polls is a murky business.

Everytime a government goes up or down in the polls, commentators race in to offer a, hopefully, plausible explanation.

The usual logical method is post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this therefore because of this). 

It is one of the most common, if not the most common, fallacies that we humans are prone to.

Most monthly opinion poll movements are within the margin of error, so no further explanation maybe necessary. Such an approach is not good material for attention grabbing headlines.

Poll movements might also be the net result of a myriad of causes - again not too interesting in a headline.

Instead commentators like to pick some recent event and suggest that it has caused the poll movement - post hoc ergo propter hoc.

This week's newspoll was good for Gillard and the ALP - so which event to pick?

The Government's compensation package might be one cause - but those goodies hadn't really begun to flow in earnest when this poll was taken last weekend.

Most commentators seemed to have settled on the idea that the public is growing tired of Abbott's relenntless pursuit of Craig Thomson. There is anecdotal evidence that some in the public are unhappy with the bullying of Thomson. But there is still overwhelming disgust at the HSU saga, and it has tarnished the ALP and will continue to do so while it remains unresolved.

But maybe the rise in support is because the EMA deal struck with Rinehart to bring in some foreign workers actually worked for the Government by suggesting that its class war wasn't serious and the Government was still capable of taking good economic decisions in the national interest.

The TV news bulletins carried plenty of coverage of outraged and exasperated union officials, which might also have helped the Government's standing in the community.

Of course, the popular media is dominated with misinformed xenophobia on the foreign mineworker issue. Nevertheless, we are talking about small poll movements. It might just be possible that some voters who switched to the LNP this year because of the Government's class war frolic have been tempted back. The Opposition is hardly strong on front-bench economic credentials.

I'm only guessing but I doubt that an interpretation of the polls that suggested Gillard was trumping Abbott on economic policy would get much consideration in the News Ltd editorial conferences.