A newly searchable database of US cables dating from 1966 to 2010, provided by Wikileaks, is enormous fun.
Unsurprisingly, the US guys have been taking a lot of interest in the internal workings of the ALP (there are several well-informed and insightful expositions of the workings of the factional system and its relationships with affiliated unions) and the question of who might succeed Rudd as PM and when.
Here are some interesting snippets I came across.
Cable dated 23 December 2009
Powerbrokers confide the factions will assert themselves when Rudd's popularity wanes.
One theory is that Rudd is developing a "praetorian guard" based on the historically powerful New South Wales Right to head off any challenge from Gillard; that it was no accident that Rudd promoted Arbib, Bowen and Clare (all from the New South Wales Right).
Cable dated 25 February 2009
Two ALP Right factional leaders we have spoken to, AWU President Joe Ludwig and Senator Don Farrell, former head of the SDA in South Australia and the most influential powerbroker in that state, both agreed that Rudd's political power in the ALP is now unchallenged, but they opined that the factions would reassert themselves once Rudd's popularity declines. Although Gillard is currently Rudd's heir apparent, factional maneuvering could ultimately deprive her of the leadership. Right-wing powerbrokers, the key to winning the leadership, are likely to prefer one of their own - such as the leader of the Victorian Right, Bill Shorten - for the job.
Cable dated 13 June 2008
New South Wales Right powerbroker Mark Arbib (protect) described her as one of the most pragmatic politicians in the ALP.
When we reminded Paul Howes (protect), head of the right-wing Australian Workers Union, that ALP politicians from the Left, no matter how capable, do not become party leader, he said immediately: "but she votes with the Right."
Although long appearing ambivalent about the Australia-US Alliance, Gillard's actions since she became the Labor Party number two indicate an understanding of its importance. Poloffs had little contact with her when she was in opposition but since the election, Gillard has gone out of her way to assist the Embassy. She attended a breakfast hosted by the Ambassador for U/S Nick Burns who visited Canberra just days after the election. At our request, she agreed to meet a visiting member of the National Labor Relations Board, after prior entreaties by the board member's Australian hosts had been rebuffed. Gillard is now a regular attendee at the American Australian Leadership Dialogues (AALD), and will be the principal government representative to the AALD meeting in Washington at the end of June. (COMMENT: Although warm and engaging in her dealings with American diplomats, it's unclear whether this change in attitude reflects a mellowing of her views or an understanding of what she needs to do to become leader of the ALP. It is likely a combination of the two. Labor Party officials have told us that one lesson Gillard took from the 2004 elections was that Australians will not elect a PM who is perceived to be anti-American. END COMMENT)
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